SHIPPERS URGENT WARNING: 600,000 Truck Drivers Are About to Vanish — Are You Ready?
- Eric Hoppe
- Nov 3
- 4 min read
Spot Rates Set to Explode — Secure Compliant, Contract Capacity Before It’s Gone
A Freight Recession Like No Other
The U.S. trucking industry — the lifeblood of a $25 trillion economy — is staring down the barrel of what could be its most brutal reckoning yet.
Freight volumes are down a staggering 18% year-over-year, and carriers are scrambling for loads that simply aren't there. Brokers, once the nimble middlemen of the supply chain, are drowning in a spot-market drought and locked into contract rates at rock-bottom levels.
But the real storm cloud? A new FMCSA regulatory crackdown that could evict up to 600,000 drivers — nearly 17% of the active workforce.
This isn’t just a purge; it’s a full-scale capacity washout that could echo the COVID-era rate spikes — only this time, without the influx of new immigrant labor to soften the blow.
"With 600,000 trucks potentially being wiped out of the market, a massive capacity crunch is coming."— Craig Fuller, CEO of FreightWaves
The Calm Before the Capacity Cataclysm
Highways that once hummed with overcapacity now feel eerily quiet.
The freight recession, already the longest in modern history, has small carriers bleeding cash — many operating at a loss per mile as operating costs have surged 40% since 2020, while rates have plummeted nearly 30 cents.
Fraud is rampant. Bad actors are exploiting compliance platforms like Highway and RMIS, leaving even legitimate operators flagged and frozen out of loads.
"The trucking industry has become a hellscape caused by the elimination of the barriers to entry. CDL mills churn out unqualified drivers, making highways far less safe."— Craig Fuller on X (formerly Twitter)
Regulatory Reckoning: Non-Domiciled CDLs and ELP Enforcement
The spark? A September 26, 2025 FMCSA emergency ruling banning non-domiciled Commercial Driver’s Licenses (CDLs) — licenses issued to non-U.S. residents without permanent residency or citizenship.
Out of roughly 200,000 CDL holders, 97% (194,000 drivers) won’t qualify for renewal.
These new rules tie licenses to temporary work authorizations (like H-2A or H-2B visas) and cap validity at one year.
On top of that, English Language Proficiency (ELP) enforcement is ramping up:
7,000+ drivers sidelined this year alone
1,500 new out-of-service orders issued every month
States like California are under pressure for lax enforcement and may face funding cuts if they fail to comply.
"We could see COVID-like spot rates in late 2026/27 due to new FMCSA regs on non-domiciled and ELP issues — with 600,000 drivers at risk."— Craig Fuller citing J.B. Hunt’s forecast
J.B. Hunt’s analysts project peak truck utilization by Q4 2026, as non-compliant drivers exit the workforce — a potential 16–20% capacity loss.
Unlike 2021, there won’t be a relief valve. “Capacity will dry up and stay tight,” Fuller warns.
Ripple Effects: Bankruptcies, Rate Rockets & a “Super Cycle”?
A wave of carrier bankruptcies is already underway.
"There will be a surge of trucking bankruptcies over the next year. Small fleets hooked on cheap non-domiciled labor are most vulnerable."— Craig Fuller
Insurance companies are pulling coverage for non-compliant drivers, while lawyers are urging fleets to audit driver files immediately to avoid liability exposure.
Spot rates could skyrocket 15% or more, according to analyst Avery Vise.Even large carriers like Schneider and Werner are bracing for a squeeze as compliance removes cheap labor from the market.
"The Great Capacity Purge will finally force rates to reflect real costs. The small, bottom-feeder fleets will go under, and compliant carriers will thrive."
Charting the Crunch: A Visual of Driver Losses
Navigating the New Normal
Shippers: Lock in contracts now, but prepare for volatility. Expect spot premiums to bite as capacity tightens.
Brokers: Vet every carrier. Fraud flags and non-compliance will make due diligence more critical than ever.
Carriers: Compliant fleets will win. Fuller notes, “Next year will be better because of the removal of excess capacity, regardless of what the economy does.”
The purge will hurt, but it may also heal the market — rewarding safety, reliability, and professionalism.
"Hold on to your hat. It’s going to be one of the best freight markets that carriers have seen in some time."— Craig Fuller
Partner with a Reliable, Compliant Carrier
In uncertain times, shippers and brokers need partners who operate above the line — fully compliant, fully transparent, and ready to move freight safely and efficiently.
Specialized Global Logistics is a trusted Michigan-based carrier and broker providing dedicated trucking, LTL, and expedite services throughout the Midwest and Ontario.
Contact us today to discuss how we can help stabilize your supply chain during this industry shake-up.
Call us 734-484-6570
Email: dispatch@sgls.net
Sources: FreightWaves, ZeroHedge, J.B. Hunt, Overdrive, FMCSA Federal Register, and Craig Fuller’s X posts (@FreightAlley).